From revealing Putin’s weaknesses to new ways to wage war to intriguing new power centers, the war in Ukraine has served up one surprise after another—and we can expect many more.
Most recently, of course, the China factor in the Ukraine equation has changed, with public warnings this week from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken that China is considering supplying lethal aid to Russia.
There have been other so-called surprises, of course, although in retrospect, perhaps these should not have been quite as unexpected. The U.S. has had a sharp reminder that our weapons production capacity is not what it needs to be if we need to ramp up quickly for a major conflict. We have also seen what might have once been a surprising amount of support for the world’s most notorious war criminal from one of America’s two major political parties. But post-Trump, why would that be unexpected.
For example, it certainly came as a surprise to Putin that the United States and NATO would step up and support Ukraine as resolutely as they have. But knowing Joe Biden’s views on Putin and Russia and knowing that Europe would see the threat against Ukraine as a threat against all of Europe, the response should have been factored into Russia’s plans…which it clearly was not.
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