If global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at the current rate, the Arctic could lose all its sea ice by the 2030s. Cutting emissions could delay this event until the 2050s at best. This estimate is ten years earlier than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has previously f
A possible ice-free Arctic in the 2030-2050s was projected regardless of humanity’s efforts to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by Professor Seung-Ki Min and Research Professor Yeon-Hee Kim from the Division of Environmental Science and Engineering at
Black line : Raw model projections – Red, Blue, Green lines: Model predictions constrained by three observed datasets. The results predict that all of Arctic sea ice will disappear in the 2030s if increases in greenhouse gas emissions remain at the current rate, and even with emission reduction, it will eventually disappear during the 2050s. Credit: POSTECH
Furthermore, it was revealed that climate models used in previous IPCC predictions generally underestimated the declining trend of sea ice area, which was taken into account to adjust the simulation values for future predictions. The results showed accelerated decline rates across all scenarios, most importantly confirming that Arctic sea ice could completely disappear by the 2050s even with reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
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