Long-dated Treasury yields moved lower early Friday as investors awaited a jobs report that will show how hard the omicron variant of the coronavirus hit the...
Long-dated Treasury yields moved lower early Friday as investors awaited a jobs report that will show how hard the omicron variant of the coronavirus hit the labor market last month.
What are yields doing? What’s driving the market? A busy week of labor market data culminates with the 8:30 a.m. Eastern release of the January jobs report. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecasting nonfarm payrolls to rise 150,000, which would be the smallest gain in 13 months. But a great deal of uncertainty surrounds the report, with some economists warning of the possibility of a large drop in payrolls.
That’s because the spread of the omicron variant was peaking at the time when the government was compiling labor data last month. Hourly workers without paid sick leave that were absent from their jobs wouldn’t be counted as employed despite still having jobs. Earlier this week, Automatic Data Processing’s estimate of private-sector jobs showed an unexpected decline.
The takeaway, analysts said, is that any fall in payrolls will probably be reversed in February. That means a weak January report is unlikely to sway the Federal Reserve from its expected path, with policy makers expected to begin lifting interest rates in March. What are analysts saying? Investors “need to be careful not be ‘head-faked’ by the jobs report,” said Scott Ruesterholz, portfolio manager at Insight Investments, in a note. “Policy makers are proactively coming out saying they won’t be with several Fed members discounting the importance of Friday’s report.”
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