NEW: Democrats are slightly favored to win the U.S. Senate, according to FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 forecast.
Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. Forecasts do not add to 100 in some races due to rounding.
In the Louisiana race and Georgia’s special election, multiple candidates from each party are facing off on Election Day. If no one gets a majority, two candidates go to a runoff.See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.
Each party's majority chances include scenarios where the Senate is evenly split and that party holds the vice presidency in our presidential forecast. As the election gets closer — and as we get swamped with new polls 😬 — the forecast will get less uncertain.Leading candidate’s forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in each state. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome.Fun fact: Incumbents who were appointed to their seat lose more often than elected incumbents, so they don’t get an incumbency boost in our model.
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