The state of climate policy is not good. While emissions are rising, countries and firms are backtracking on climate action. The US climate movement must rethink its strategy by pursuing legislative compromises and sticking to the decarbonization message.
State of the Union speech, where he mentioned climate change 6 times, devoting 480 words in his 7,921 words speech .. In her 1,064-word essay, she devoted 5 words to climate issues!In tactical terms, the Ukraine crisis is probably the most critical factor derailing climate progress. It has disrupted the global oil and gas markets. Coal is staging a comeback because it is now competitive with gas.
But there is more to the story, at least in the U.S. At the strategic level, the climate movement probably has shown a lack of willingness to compromise. Think of the Build Back Better bill which is now stalled in the Senate. Senator Manchin has indicated his willingness to support awhich focuses on climate issues only. But the climate movement and its Senate and House supporters have adopted an “all or nothing” approach.
One might argue that there is a clear momentum behind decarbonizing electricity sector and electrification of the automobile industry. Hence, the Ukraine-induced policy reversal is temporary and decarbonization will return to its original trajectory. This is probably true, but it is less clear how long the current pause in climate policy will last, and in the absence of aggressive federal support, what the new policy trajectory might look like.
In sum, climate issues tend to lose if they are viewed as encouraging inflation or hurting the economy. Therefore, a messaging correction is needed. The moral framing of climate goals, which tends to deemphasize their economic impact, should probably take a back seat. Could the climate movement transform itself to become more humble and stick to the decarbonization message? Would it? Only time will tell.
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