Two decades ago, then-President Bush announced the start of combat operations in Iraq. The bloody occupation that followed lasted longer and cost more than anyone guessed.
the Iraqi army a couple of months later — thus leaving 400,000 disgruntled and combat-trained Iraqi men with no income — proved a turning point in the conflict. It helped fuel the insurgency and is credited by some historians with having helped to spawn the Islamic State terrorist group.
"There has been no history of short, successful interventions that have resulted in successful regime change. So the arrogance of assuming that could happen was astounding," she says. The potential for a protracted occupation should have been foreseen, says Crocker."To overthrow someone else's government and occupy the country is going to set into motion consequences that aren't just third and fourth order. They're 30th and 40th order — way beyond any capacity to predict or plan."
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