338Canada: High stakes and deadlock in Alberta

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338Canada: High stakes and deadlock in Alberta
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The Conservative and NDP leaders square off Thursday in the only debate of the campaign.

the NDP ahead by an 8-point margin . Among decided voters, the NDP lead jumps to 10 points. Abacus had the parties deadlocked at 36 percent in late April, so this is a statistically significant movement in favor of the NDP.

The pollster’s regional numbers have Rachel Notley’s NDP winning most support in both urban centers while trailing the UCP in the regions by a surprisingly narrow 10-point margin . Such a scenario would most likely mean a return to power for the Alberta NDP. One pollster's regional numbers have Rachel Notley’s NDP winning most support in Alberta's urban centers. | Cliff Owen/AP Photobegan its rolling poll of Alberta last weekend. The numbers available as of this writing showed the UCP leading by 5 points province-wide.

Mainstreet has the NDP leading in the cities , but trailing badly in the regions. The numbers depict a toss-up with the winner barely above the 44-seat threshold. Mainstreet President Quito Maggi says that since a 2021 video of Smith talking about selling off hospitals emerged, the UCP has lost significant support among Calgary seniors. While it’s good to be cautious of subsamples , Maggi mentions the “UCP had a 10+ lead among seniors in Calgary” at the start of the campaign. That lead has flipped in favor of the NDP.Smith has since promised to not privatize hospitals, pledging that no Albertan will have to pay for doctor visits or necessary care.

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