If the Tories’ polling continues to slide in 2023, watch carefully to see if support for Scottish independence softens, too—a stable Labour government might be more palatable to all but the most committed nationalists
Editor’s note: Judges from Britain’s Supreme Court ruled on November 23rd that Scotland’s devolved parliament cannot pass a law calling for a referendum on independence without the approval of the British government.two very different roads that Scotland could take in the coming year. Down one route, October 19th 2023 becomes a monumental date, known to every future Scottish schoolchild as the day on which the United Kingdom came to an end and a new nation was born.
For October 19th is the day on which Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, hopes to hold a second referendum on independence. In the first, held in 2014, Scots voted 55% to 45% in favour of the union. Polls now show they are split down the middle. If the separatists prevail, a long and painful divorce negotiation would follow, which would consume the energy of governments in Edinburgh and London for a decade. The Brexit negotiations, handling the European gas crisis, the stretched public finances—all would look like a highland picnic compared with the challenge of an advanced economy splitting itself in two.
Ms Sturgeon wants her referendum to be legally watertight and so, if the Supreme Court does indeed say no, she will hold fire and use the next British general election, due in 2024, as a proxy referendum on Scottish independence. During 2023, in this scenario, there would simply be another prolonged skirmish, each side grinding away with their own arguments. The Supreme Court’s refusal of a referendum would be heralded as yet more proof that Scotland is a prisoner of a jealous British state.
What may change Scottish minds is what is happening in Westminster, and not necessarily in Ms Sturgeon’s favour. The Supreme Court heard the case just a week before the collapse of Liz Truss’s short-lived government and the selection of Rishi Sunak as Tory leader and prime minister. For Nationalists, recent events are proof that only independence can free Scotland from the chaos of Westminster.a headache.
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