ANALYSIS: A new deal between Ukraine and Russia may show a path to the end of the war
The clearest takeaway is that this may indicate that the Russians believe they can't enforce their Black Sea blockade for much longer. The Russians have generally been at their most "generous" in their dealings with Ukraine in this war when the Russian tactical situation is hopeless. RememberThe Ukrainians have been supplied with a range of different weapons now that make Russian Navy operations in the Black Sea difficult.
Once again, the Ukrainians have out-thought the Russians; they have achieved a "victory" at sea by significantly degrading the Russian blockade and without having to fight. Just possessing these long-range missiles had a strategic effect. There is a lesson in this for Australia's defence planners! A third takeaway is that now the Ukrainians can export grain from their southern ports , it further incentivises their conduct of a southern offensive campaign.
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