China’s zero-covid policy is doing significant economic damage. GDP rose by just 0.4% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier
rose by just 0.4% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier. Not since the start of the pandemic has the economy looked so anaemic. Nearly a fifth of young people are unemployed. Dozens of private hospitals—forced to devote resources to mass testing—have declared bankruptcy in the past two years. Recently the gambling hub of Macau closed its casinos, which provide 80% of local government revenue, because of an outbreak.
The government has made some tweaks to its rules, such as reducing the quarantine time for international travellers from 14 days to seven. But more significant changes may depend on how the virus evolves. Yanzhong Huang of the Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank in America, believes it would take a new variant that completely overwhelms attempts to contain it, like a “dambuster”, to cause a change in strategy.
What that timetable looks like—or whether it even exists—is anyone’s guess. To avoid mass death, any exit strategy would have to start with a campaign to vaccinate the elderly. Ideally this would require them to receive two doses of a vaccine, plus a booster shot. As of July 7th only two-thirds of those over 60 had been jabbed three times. People over 80 appear the most hesitant to get vaccinated.
Cities have tried to increase vaccination rates by, for example, offering eggs or cash to old people who get jabbed. But these sops look tiny compared with the resources thrown at testing and enforcing lockdowns. Only a few cities require proof of vaccination to enter public spaces. The municipal authorities in Beijing recently floated the idea, but backed down after opposition.
Mr Xi does not seem to be pushing them. He has not even confirmed that he is vaccinated, let alone been jabbed on television, as the leaders of some other countries have done. While most countries have accepted that the virus cannot be eradicated, Mr Xi says China will continue with the zero-covid policy until a “final victory” has been secured. Perhaps only he knows what victory looks like.
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