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Fears are mounting that Donald Trump could sway Brazil's election in a bid to install a US ally.
Brazil's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, could be ousted as Brazilians head to the polls for the presidential election. If successful, Flávio Bolsonaro will seek to overturn his father's 27 year prison sentence.
Right-wing candidates have had sweeping success in claiming power across Latin America. Brazil could be next, with voters heading to the polls. Brazilians will choose between left-wing candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing candidate and senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro is a new candidate and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro — who was sentenced to almost 30 years in prison for an attempted coup following his defeat by Lula in the 2022 election.
Because of his incarceration, Bolsonaro was barred from running and passed the baton to his son — the new head of the Bolsonaro right-wing movement in Brazil. The first round of voting will take place on 4 October. If no candidate wins in the first round, a deciding vote between the top two candidates will take place on 25 October. Your trusted source for staying up-to-date with the world around you.
Get free daily news updates and analysis, straight to your inbox. Deputy director of ANU's Australian Centre for Federalism and senior lecturer in politics and international relations Dr Thiago Nascimento de Silva told SBS News that it'll be the "third consecutive presidential election marked by the same divide" of Lula versus Bolsonaro.
"In 2018, Lula was imprisoned and barred from running, with Fernando Haddad standing as the Workers' Party candidate," he explained. "In 2022, the two leaders faced each other directly. In 2026, the roles are reversed. Jair Bolsonaro is now ineligible to run and is serving a 27-year sentence for an attempted coup following his defeat in the 2022 election.
His political camp is represented by his eldest son, senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
"The 80-year-old has been a defining figure in Brazilian politics for decades. He served two four-year terms as president between 2003 and 2011, and is now serving a third term, which began in 2023 after he defeated Bolsonaro in 2022. He's a strong supporter of political democracy, funding programs that address Brazil's severe inequality and fostering relationships with non-Western powers globally. Brazil's president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, defeated Jair Bolsonaro in 2022 and has served as president since.
Source: Getty / BloombergThe 45-year-old has a 'tough on crime' stance and has promised to address inflation and government spending — and wants to strengthen ties between Brazil and the Trump Administration. He is also advocating for his father's release from prison, believing his trial illegitimate and an act of political persecution.
“I ask God for the opportunity to walk up the ramp of Planalto Palace next year alongside President Jair Messias Bolsonaro, so that he may place the presidential sash across my chest,” he said at a campaign event in September. Brazil's right-wing senator and presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro will seek to overturn his father's prison sentence if successful in his presidential bid.
Source: AFP / Douglas Shineidr If Bolsonaro wins, it will mark another victory for the right-wing movement in Latin America, de Silva said.
"Brazil heads to the polls at the end of a cycle that has seen part of Latin America swing to the right," he said. US President Donald Trump has had some sway in the movement's success, backing candidates in Argentina and Honduras and pursuing military action in January that abducted former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro.
"Brazil heads into October as one of the few remaining centre-left governments in South America. The result will determine whether this cycle runs its full course or hits a wall," said de Silva. Bolsonaro's favour of the US has caused controversy in Brazil — with Lula accusing his opponent of being an accomplice in America's efforts to undermine Brazil's sovereignty and democracy. There's also rising concern that Trump could intervene or seek to influence the election in Bolsonaro's favour.
The Trump administration has historically cut economic support to Latin American countries that have ousted his preferred candidate. Trump has also weaponised sanctions against officials involved in Jair Bolsonaro's persecution and imposed tariffs on Brazil in an attempt to pressure them to drop his case — a case he described as a "witch-hunt". Trump has also labelled many Brazilian crime groups terrorist organisations, including the Primeiro Comando da Capital and the Red Command.
"Now, in September, a US State Department report called out the government's crackdown on organised crime, which is precisely one of its weak spots, and something Flávio Bolsonaro’s supporters are trying to capitalise on in the campaign. "Lula hit back at the UN, calling it foreign meddling, and his campaign team has taken the matter straight to the Electoral Court. "Sign up now for daily news from Australia and around the world.
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