It will take an extra investment of £900m a year by 2023-24 to stop even more vacancies going unfilled
Signs of strain are becoming apparent, as waiting times continue to rise. Problems are hard to contain. Shortages of staff in social care means more work fors, which makes it harder to get an appointment, which means more people turn up in accident and emergency departments. By most measures, more staff are leaving each year, and the most cited reason for doing so is dissatisfaction with their work-life balance.
Although the number of medics has risen in recent years, it has not been fast enough to match growing demand. In 2007 there were 8.7m people over the age of 65; today there are 10m. But it not just an ageing population that calls for more staff. Official guidelines published after care failures in the late 2000s warn that patients are at greater risk of harm if a nurse often has to care for more than eight patients on a ward during the day.
Planning a health workforce is difficult, partly because of the time frames involved . Last year the government announced 1,500 new places in medical schools, as well as five new institutions, in Chelmsford, Sunderland, Lancashire, Lincoln and Canterbury—all areas where shortages are biting. In Chelmsford, such is the enthusiasm for the school, a couple of locals have even popped in to offer their bodies for research.
But it is hard to direct students to the specialisms where shortages are most severe. Although they can be encouraged to becomes or psychiatrists, a lot still like “the idea of putting on wellies” as a surgeon, says Dr Hughes. And the government has a big shortfall to make up because of deep cuts to spending on training.
Things are not about to get easier. International competition for doctors and nurses is increasing as emerging economies invest in health. Brexit is already making it harder to recruit from theface a retirement bulge: one in three nurses, midwives and health visitors is over 50. The three think-tanks conclude that it will take extra investment of £900m a year by 2023-24, in things like grants for student nurses and training for existing staff, to stop even more vacancies going unfilled.
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