Taxes and inflation have Jim Chalmers knocking on the door of the exclusive club of treasurers to deliver a budget surplus – but fresh economic risks could slam that door shut.
for the first time since 2007-08, is so close to the Keating and Costello club that he can smell the leather of the Chesterfield chairs.In March, income tax collections were forecast to reach $264 billion in 2022-23. Now, they’re tipped to reach $297 billion thanks to a strong job market and a long-awaited lift in wages.
The extra tax, and the expected $4.2 billion surplus, would ordinarily be considered anti-inflationary. The Morrison government also left a swimming pool-sized hole by not putting away money for the Brisbane Olympics, which was allocated $1.1 billion on Tuesday night. There are even larger risks around, including what Treasury describes as a “global financial stress” threat.
It promises a major improvement to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, with annual growth in the cost of the scheme expected to fall from 13.8 per cent over the next decade to a still eye-watering 10.4 per cent.However, there’s scant detail about this step down in growth – agreed to in-principle by all governments – which would deliver a total saving of about $59 billion by early next decade.
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