The ink had scarcely dried on an agreement allowing Ukraine to resume its grain exports by sea when Russian missiles struck Ukraine’s biggest port, Odessa, early on July 23rd
, Russia’s flagship in the Black Sea; and the reinforcement of Ukrainian coastal defences with the delivery of Western missiles.
The Istanbul deal would let Ukrainian farmers sell more of their product, and so earn more money to buy seeds and fertiliser for next season’s planting. Two other factors are helping lower world prices. One is that the harvest in the northern hemisphere is going well; Russia is expected to bring in a record wheat crop of about 90m tonnes.
When the grain exports resume is unclear. It will probably be one to two months before the first ships—expected to be those trapped in Ukrainian ports since the start of the war—can set sail. Getting new ships into port will take longer given the need to set up the monitoring mechanism, find willing shipowners and crews, and negotiate the necessary insurance cover.
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