A tropical system could drench parts of the Gulf Coast including, ironically, Alabama
Oh, the irony is rich with the latest weather model runs. From a set of convective blobs near Mexico, a potential tropical cyclone may emerge and move into the Gulf of Mexico. Our best weather models are increasingly trending towards the storm developing. If the storm reaches tropical storm status , it would take the name “Nestor.” Nestor was a mythical character in theThe Gulf States, including Alabama, should watch this storm closely.
A broad area of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving generally northeastward.
We are certainly still within the Atlantic basin hurricane season, and there is nothing particularly odd about a tropical system forming in this location. The climatology of where tropical cyclones have formed during the October 11-20 from 1851 to 2015 shows a cluster of origin points near the Bay of Campeche region.Dr.
Dr. Philippe Papin, Atmospheric Scientist and NRC Associate Postdoctoral Researcher at the U.S. Naval Research Lab Two different tropical systems near the Bay of Campeche. One could eventually form into a tropical system affecting the Gulf States.My current review of the models finds that the American GFS has a fairly aggressive scenario by Friday evening. It spins up a tropical storm in the Gulf that is just off the Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coast. Other models, including the “Euro” model, are also bullish on a similar scenario.
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