Voters in Canada's main oil-producing province Alberta headed to the polls on Monday in a tight election race that is expected to have a significant bearing on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's climate goals, which are already seen as lagging global peers.
The battle between populist Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party , which is seeking a second consecutive term, and Rachel Notley's left-leaning New Democratic Party is expected to be extremely close, pollsters say, even though Alberta is traditionally a conservative bastion.
Notley's NDP, which ruled from 2015 to 2019 after a shock election victory that ended decades of conservative rule in the province, is seen as more amenable to Liberal plans to rapidly cut emissions, although it also opposes the oil and gas emissions cap. "We see the likely outcome of an NDP victory as accelerated decarbonization, but potentially at much higher net costs to industry given its position on environment and taxes," Dziuba wrote in a note to clients, adding the UCP would likely support a steady pace of progress at a lower cost.
The winning party must take 44 seats out of 87 electoral districts to control a majority of seats in the legislature."I will never permit any Liberal Prime Minister or any Ottawa politician to phase out our energy industry or the jobs of our amazing energy workers," Smith said in a speech on Friday that included pledges to grow the economy and make the cost of living more affordable.
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