Algerians may discover that removing a president is easy; changing a regime is not
who does not speak finally listened. On March 11th Algeria’s president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, announced that he would not run for a fifth term. That has been the demand of tens of thousands of protesters over the past three weeks. Mr Bouteflika, 82, has ruled for 20 years. A stroke in 2013 left him confined to a wheelchair and barely able to speak. Yet he was to be the only real candidate in an election on April 18th. With him out of the race, the vote has been postponed.
Not right away, though. The letter proposed a transitional period, with a national convention to draft a new constitution that would be put to a public vote. Elections will follow. The timing of all this is vague, and Mr Bouteflika will preside over a technocratic government until the election. There is talk of Lakhdar Brahimi, a veteran diplomat, heading the constitutional effort.Joy at the announcement soon turned to doubt.
A new economic elite has gained strength. The best-known businessman is Ali Haddad, a construction magnate who grew rich off state contracts and now heads the Business Leaders Forum , a powerful federation. Algeria is one of the largest energy producers in Africa and a key supplier of natural gas to Europe. Mr Bouteflika doled out billions of dollars in oil-and-gas revenue to allies, ostensibly for infrastructure projects. A good bit of it disappeared.
Yet big business is divided. Executives compete for rents in a state-dominated economy. Many dislike Mr Haddad. Earlier this year Mohamed Benamor, the boss of a food conglomerate, was rumoured to have met an ex-general and presidential hopeful called Ali Ghediri. After the protests began, Mr Benamor and other businessmen quit thecould not agree on a successor. It had hoped to find one during Mr Bouteflika’s languid fifth term—until the protests caught it unprepared.
The protesters may not oblige. “Leave means leave” has become a popular slogan on social media. The police have so far been restrained, for fear of exacerbating the unrest. But things could get out of hand. Private disagreements between Mr Bouteflika’s allies may spill into public; Gulf states may start competing for influence in Algeria, as they already do in Tunisia and Libya. The days ahead will be uncertain.
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