Unfortunately, Ukraine, Russia, and the West thus now find themselves in a Catch-22, write DanDePetris. 'Peace talks will only occur after more fighting in the area. But the more fighting there is, the higher the risk of escalation.'
It would increase by eight times the support the Biden administration has given Kyiv since the war began in February. Nearly two-thirds of the $33 billion will take the form of military assistance. Kyiv can expect additional deliveries of artillery units, armored vehicles, air defense systems, and anti-armor weapons. The administration is also proposing changes to U.S.
The immediate effect of this aid will be a rearmed Ukrainian military. That matters because, despite its series of victories around Kyiv, Ukraine confronts a large-scale Russian offensive in the Donbas. This expanse of open land caters to the type of warfare Russia desired all along. In contrast, Russian forces were confused and outmatched in urban terrain, where their armor was destroyed by a mobile and adaptive Ukrainian resistance.
Washington and its allies apparently think so. Wars tend to end in one of two ways: first, as a result of a military victory by one side over the other , or second, as the result of a peace deal that ends the war . Notwithstanding U.S. statements about helping Ukraine win the war outright, it’s difficult to imagine Ukraine's total defeat of the Russians. A negotiated resolution is the more likely option.
But we are a long way from reaching the point of serious talks. With the Russian offensive in the Donbas ramping up and Ukrainian formations digging in for what is sure to be an intense barrage of air, missile, and artillery strikes, Kyiv or Moscow aren’t in the right frame of mind to talk about peace terms. The talks themselves depend on the state of the battlefield. With the battlefield in flux, trying to conjure up terms for a peace settlement is fruitless.
Unfortunately, Ukraine, Russia, and the West thus now find themselves in a Catch-22. Peace talks will only occur after more fighting in the area. But the more fighting there is, the higher the risk of escalation. Indeed, just this week, Russia
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