“At this point, we really can’t afford” war against Russia, says Elbridge Colby, the lead author of the US National Defence Strategy of 2018. 'It would be like, for example, obsessing over the Boer War when World War I is looming.”
The US President, Joe Biden, has made it clear. If Russia launches a new military attack on Ukraine, America will not defend it.
But there’s a bigger, harder reason of national strategy. Even if war against Russia were wildly popular, grand strategy would stay a president’s hand. The primary fight? Only one country has the potential to dominate the US, says Colby, and it’s not Russia. Only one country is amassing the power to be able to coerce the US economically, in turn positioning itself to be able to undermine its freedom and prosperity, he says:
“But Australia has America as a backstop. But if we let China get to the point where China can subordinate America then we and those who are allied with us are finished – we have no America.” OK, so China is uniquely dangerous to the US, the Trump and Biden people agree. But isn’t Russia a scary big power? China might be the long-term danger, but isn’t Russia the immediate threat?
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