Changes still appear afoot, although they may get pushed back toward the second half of the month.
The key to a cold, snowy pattern is the evolution of a high-pressure zone in the North Atlantic region, or “Greenland block,” which is also known as a negative North Atlantic oscillation . The presence of a Greenland block impedes weather systems from running into it and forces the jet stream, along which storms track, to dive south over eastern North America.
“We won’t know for sure how much of a pattern change we’ll get until the big storm that will be impacting the northern Plains and Upper Midwest is resolved,” wrote Wes Junker, Capital Weather Gang’s winter weather expert, in a text message.Around that time, partly in response to the central U.S. storm, high pressure is expected to build over the Gulf of Alaska and surrounding areas. The presence of high pressure there reliably helps steer cold air into the Lower 48, and particularly the East.
“That suggests by the 18th we should start getting some colder air here,” Junker said. “The change in the pattern in the Pacific potentially is a significant one if it verifies.”Pattern changes are notoriously difficult to accurately predict — especially more than a week in advance. This is part of the reason for caution when you come across any specific predictions for snowstorms or intense cold snaps more than a few days in advance.
“Models tend to prematurely predict pattern changes, and I think that this is a good example of that,” wrote Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting atCohen noted that Europe responds more quickly to the negative phase of the NAO compared with the eastern United States. In that sense, he expects cold air to continue to affect Europe before taking aim at the Lower 48.
The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast still appear on track to turn more wintry during the second half of the month. As Christmas approaches, if you’re rooting for snow, waiting is often the hardest part.
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