Analysis: A raft of polls in battleground states shows potential governor-Senate splits that seem to map to perceptions of candidate quality.
That enthusiasm seems to correspond to perceptions of candidate quality, though, is telling. In the fourth Senate race, pitting Sen. Ron Johnson against Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes , Johnson is faring better. That’s probably a combination of incumbency — clearly a factor in the Arizona and Georgia Senate races — and the fact that efforts tohave been more effective than in other states.
There is one candidate who was seen as a dubious candidate choice but is faring well in the Fox polling: Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor in Arizona. A former television news anchor, she’s adept at politicking, but her decision to center her campaign heavily on false claims about election fraud seemed like it might be a drag on her effort.
Fox asked another question that may help explain why it hasn’t been. Asked to pick between identifying themselves as supporters more of the Republican Party or Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement, Arizona was the only state where MAGA support was more common. While the margin Lake enjoys among Republicans is relatively low compared with the other candidates, the difference in enthusiasm between her and Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs, Arizona’s secretary of state, is negligible.Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell , perpetually thirsting to once again be majority leader, has downplayed confidence in his party’s ability to retake the Senate given the quality of candidates who emerged during the primaries.
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