Analysis: Has the political environment shifted? Alums of 2010, 2018 wave midterms urge caution.
Instead, both operatives, who were working for the party trying to flip control of the House, learned that it is hard to turn a political environment around ahead of midterm elections. Recent presidential campaigns have featured big surprises — think of a certain FBI letter in late October 2016 or Wall Street’s collapse in fall 2008 — but midterm campaigns have tended to stay on course once voters get a baked-in view of the party in power.
Instead, mass shootings in New York and Texas made gun violence a top issue for voters, followed by a Supreme Court ruling overturning a nearly 50-year precedent on abortion rights and then a late-summer flurry of federal legislation that energized liberals who previously felt let down by the Democratic legislative majority.All this while gas prices fell by more than $1 a gallon throughout the summer.
That’s how it has played out in the past four midterm elections, with Democrats twice losing big and Republicans twice losing big. The president’sby gaining House seats — the only such outcomes of the past 100 years.