Analysis: Trump's indictment could still be the thing that finally erodes his base of support or it’s just another stone in that ever-expanding cemetery.
The most important shift in the new CNN poll, conducted by SSRS, is in Trump’s favorability rating. In a poll that was completed May 20, Trump was viewed favorably by three-quarters of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. In the new poll, that’s down to 65 percent. That 10-point drop is significant.
CNN’s poll has other significant changes, too. In the horse race question — that is, which Republicans receive the most overall support — Trump dropped 6 points relative to May. Interestingly, DeSantis didn’t gain at all. Instead, other candidates saw gains. That’s different from the long-term trend recorded in FiveThirtyEight’s, in which Trump and DeSantis have consistently vacuumed up three-quarters of the vote. When one gains, the other loses. CNN is capturing something slightly different.
Notably, only about a third of those who right now plan to vote for someone else say that Trump did something illegal, that he put national security at risk or that he acted differently than had past presidents. Most of those not planning to vote for Trump say that he acted unethically but not at the risk of national security and not in an unusual way.
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