Analysis: The NFL power ratings that actually matter
These lines are an important clue, because we can reverse-engineer them to figure out exactly how many points each team is worth in the spread, according to the SuperBook. We can also figure out how much home-field advantage is valued, further insight into the offseason analysis of one of the sharper books in the market.
The bottom teams, according to the SuperBook, are the Atlanta Falcons , Houston Texans and Detroit Lions . Judging teams by this metric isn’t perfect, but the results certainly pass the smell test, providing a measuring stick for the upcoming season. As for now, these power ratings can prove useful for anyone scanning the NFL futures markets. Since 2002, an NFL team that averaged a point spread of -1 — being a slight favorite — won 9½ games, while a team favored by an average of four points won 11½ games. That helps us evaluate regular season win total wagers available in the offseason.
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