Analysis: Trump goes into election season facing a steeper climb than the past three incumbent presidents
President Trump waves to the crowd on March 2. By Philip Bump Philip Bump National correspondent focused largely on the numbers behind politics Email Bio Follow March 5 at 9:20 AM People are frustratingly fickle. While democracy would probably suffer if the only people allowed to vote were robots who were incapable of changing their opinions, it would certainly make political prognostication simpler.
But here we get to the robot issue: People change their minds and circumstances change. Clinton ended up winning, of course, earning 11 percentage points more in the actual vote than the 1995 poll indicated. For Bush, who had a broad lead on this metric, things narrowed dramatically. First, let’s look at another number that’s not good news for Trump: Independents are 18 percentage points more likely to say they’ll vote against Trump than vote for him. Democrats plan to oppose him and Republicans to vote for him . But those independent numbers seem ... problematic.
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