Are investors overcooking US recession fears?

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Are investors overcooking US recession fears?
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Both jobs growth and consumer confidence in the US is much better than the financial markets would have you believe.

Fed chair Jerome Powell has repeated his guidance that rate rises of a similar 50 basis point magnitude will be on the table at their next two meetings, later this month and in July.

America’s big retailers have provided a range of insights into the health of the US consumer of late. At the Target super store in Washington DC’s Colombia Heights, airconditioning technician Walter Argueta said he was still spending a lot despite noticeably higher inflation.“I am spending more now not because I want to buy more but because it’s more expensive - everything is going up,” Mr Argueta said.Advertisement

Both Ms Wagner and her friend Kaitlyn Anderson were shopping for cosmetics, which, along with perfumes and bath products, have been one consumer category to buck the inflationary trend. Prices in this area have shrunk 0.5 per cent in the last 12 months. Next year could be bumpier, with the bank expecting overall consumer spending to slow in the first half before contracting in the fourth quarter, driven by lower spending on goods.

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