ANALYSIS: Are we already sliding into another recession?
The Commonwealth Bank's head of Australian economics Gareth Aird says lockdowns, by their very nature, grind much economic activity to a halt.
He expects Gross Domestic Product to contract by 0.7 per cent in the September quarter alongside a likely lift in the unemployment rate in July. "We're going to have a significant hit to GDP in the September quarter but in order to meet the criteria for a technical recession you'd have to have another contraction in the December quarter, and I think at the moment that's not the right call to make," he explains.
National Australia Bank's chief economist Alan Oster says his team are also expecting "a negative [September quarter]".Again he is not forecasting a recession at this point, but he concedes it's "hard to say how long the virus takes to get under control."Economists have many numbers to crunch when they're forecasting economic growth in coming months.
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