As Trump escalates rhetoric, Iran is making its own plans for a potential war

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As Trump escalates rhetoric, Iran is making its own plans for a potential war
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As Trump escalates rhetoric, Iran is making its own plans for a potential war by zachsdorfman

In July 2017, Ahmadreza Doostdar, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen, visited the Oriental Institute Museum at the University of Chicago, where FBI agents surveilled him performing what appeared to be a surreptitious exchange of information — a brush pass — with a woman in one of the museum’s rooms.

The Department of Defense, CIA and FBI declined to comment. The Iranian Mission to the United Nations did not respond to a request for comment. While it’s not always clear why Iranian intelligence is interested in a particular location — and the United States also surveils a variety of foreign targets — Iran’s strategy is clearly different, says one former senior intelligence official.The U.S. government has long accused Iran of being involved in terrorist attacks, citing its role, via Hezbollah and other proxies, in the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, which killed 241 U.S. troops, and of the U.S.

In the past, a few instances of close surveillance of CIA officials by Hezbollah operatives has been of acute concern, said one former intelligence official. “Sometimes you ask the local intelligence service to grab them and have a conversation, but sometimes you need to pull the [CIA] person out of country because of an abundance of caution,” said this former official.

Worries about U.S.-directed Iranian terrorism or assassination attempts have waxed and waned with the overall tenor of U.S.-Iranian relations, say former officials — that is, they rise or fall with the likelihood of an actual shooting war. Iran’s counterintelligence capabilities were also becoming notably more sophisticated, particularly after Iran compromised the CIA’s secret communications system — likely in concert with China — used by the agency to contact its agents abroad. As Iran ramped up its intelligence operations, it focused on the U.S. and Israel’s disruption of the country’s secret nuclear weapons program, according to the same former senior U.S. intelligence official.

“In light of this threat, intelligence cooperation between Israel and the United States is vital to the security of both countries and to the world,” a spokesperson for the Israeli Embassy wrote in a statement. “Today, that cooperation is stronger, broader and deeper than ever.” After 2013, this consensus, already shaky, was shattered, says another former U.S. intelligence official. During this time, U.S. officials identified multiple instances — fewer than five, says this person — where Iranian operatives appeared to be targeting U.S. and Israeli intelligence officials engaged in activities against Iran for possible assassinations. Critical identifying information about the threatened U.S.

A second former official confirmed the evacuation of a U.S. intelligence official in Europe during this period because of unexpected Iranian interest. How the Iranians had managed to identify this person led to intense scrutiny by U.S. officials — and rising consensus that the Iranians had recruited a U.S. government source, said this former official. There was a great deal of CIA-FBI finger-pointing over this issue, recalls this person.

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