Australian shares are set to open lower, following modest losses on Wall Street. The currency has reset lower. Second-quarter GDP ahead. Follow updates here.
Citing “continued positive inflation and labour market news”, Goldman Sachs’ economists led by Jan Hatzius said they have “cut our estimated 12-month US recession probability further to 15 per cent.
Mr Hatzius said the strength in third-quarter GDP tracking “likely overstates the economy’s true momentum”, given the still-soft business surveys and the much slower growth in real gross domestic income. “Second, we still strongly disagree with the notion that a growing drag from the ‘long and variable lags’ of monetary policy will push the economy toward recession—in fact, we think that the drag from monetary policy tightening will continue to diminish before vanishing entirely by early 2024.”
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