Australian shares are poised to open modestly lower, in line with losses paced by tech in New York. Bitcoin retakes $US26,000. Follow updates here.
Here are what some economists are expecting to see in the US August consumer price index:: “We agree with the consensus forecast of a third straight 0.2 per cent print for the August core CPI, due today, but we see downside risks to the 0.6 per cent consensus for the headline. Our base case is 0.5 per cent, but a 0.4 per cent print is well within the realms of possibility.”: “On core CPI, our forecast is for an increase of 0.2 per cent - 0.
“The Fed would like to see this monthly pace continue and eventually fall a bit to closer to or slightly below 0.2 per cent to be comfortable that they’re on their way to achieving their 2 per cent goal. For headline CPI we expect MoM pace to be 0.55 per cent - 0.6 per cent with the particularly strong energy prices this month pushing up YoY rate to 3.6 per cent - 3.7 per cent, up from 3.3 per cent last month.
“Near-term, risks are more balanced for this month. While goods inflation is expected to deflate, though at a slower pace compared to last few months, and we expect services inflation to remain firm.”: “After two straight relatively benign reports in June and July, the August CPI could prove to be a tone-setter heading into the fall.
“However, I believe that the last two monthly figures overstate the degree of underlying progress. In particular, the narrow core advances were driven by big drops in two of the most volatile line items, used vehicles and airfares.”: ”We expect a 0.24 per cent increase in August core CPI , corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 4.30 per cent . We expect a 0.63 per cent increase in August headline CPI , which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 3.58 per cent .
“Going forward, we expect monthly core CPI inflation to remain in the 0.2-0.3 per cent range in the next few months. We expect continued moderation in shelter inflation and lower used car prices to be offset by a swing in the CPI’s health insurance component when the [Bureau of Labor Statistics] incorporates new data and a methodological change in October. We forecast year-over-year core CPI inflation of 3.8 per cent in December 2023 and 3.0 per cent in December 2024.
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