Australian shares fell 0.3 per cent, or by 21.5 points to 7310.6, at market open, led by a significant loss in the materials sector. Follow updates here:
The key data point this shortened-trading week will be first-quarter CPI data on Wednesday. Here are some expectations:: “We expect Q1 CPI … to confirm the long-expected peak in annual inflation occurred in Q4. We see headline inflation at 1.3 per cent q/q and 7.0 per cent y/y from the 7.8 per cent y/y peak in Q4.
“Base effects account for almost all of that slowing, with large fuel and new dwellings inflation dropping out. “While the data should confirm we are past the peak in inflation, we note that the RBA has been forecasting a peak in y/y inflation since May 2022, when it began its tightening cycle. It is good news to be sure, but base effects mean it only says that price rises in the first quarter in 2023 were not as high as the first quarter of 2022, a small hurdle to clear.”: “Q1 CPI is expected to post a gain of over 1 per cent q/q non-annualised again. Most estimates range from 1.2–1.
“Of greater importance will be the trimmed mean and weighted median figures that have been running hot for an extended period. Since the Australian Bureau of Statistics started to publish monthly CPI estimates late last year, they have taken on importance in judging higher frequency pressures; the March estimate lands at the same time.”: ”The Jan-Feb monthly CPIs point to an easing in price pressures, and it’s unlikely the Q1 headline would meet the RBA implied forecasts.
“Trimmed mean inflation could stay more sticky as broad-based price pressures remain. If both prints [are] in line with our forecasts which are below consensus, this should bolster our call for the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged in May.”
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