Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell predicts an imminent federal election, signaling strong indicators and expressing surprise if the March sitting session continues. The election's outcome could potentially mark the end of one of Australia's political leaders' parliamentary careers. The political landscape is also characterized by uncertainty, with predictions of a hung parliament and potential negotiations with independents to form a minority government.
Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell has revealed compelling indicators suggesting a federal election is imminent, expressing astonishment if the March sitting progresses. Scheduled for next month, the return of Australia 's federal politicians includes a budget slated for March 25th. However, Clennell stated on Thursday that he would be deeply surprised if the sitting session continued.
The Sky News Political Editor, based on conversations with government figures and the general atmosphere within Parliament, asserted that Thursday's session likely constitutes the last sitting day of this parliamentary term. An election is anticipated to be called soon after the Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision next Tuesday. Clennell shared a recent report indicating the government whip in the Senate packing up boxes, further fueling speculation. Sky News Australia's Chief Anchor, Kieren Gilbert, pointed out that the election's outcome could mark the end of one of Australia's political leaders' tenure in Parliament. This marks a significant moment in political history, potentially being the last time we see Anthony Albanese or Peter Dutton in that chamber. Depending on the election result, one of these figures who have graced this place for over two decades might not return when Parliament reconvenes in a couple of months.The latest speculation coincides with former Labor strategist-turned-Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras revealing that eight to ten Labor seats are potentially at risk. Among the vulnerable Labor seats are Gilmore and Bennelong in New South Wales, currently held by Fiona Phillips and Jerome Laxale, respectively. Aston in Victoria, won by Mary Doyle in a 2023 by-election, and the Tasmanian seat of Lyons, where incumbent Brian Mitchell is retiring and the party has nominated Bec White, are also facing threats. Marion Scrymgour's Northern Territory seat of Lingari and Dr. Gordon Reid's NSW seat of Robertson, both held by Labor, are also considered vulnerable.However, a swing against the government is widely anticipated to result in a hung parliament rather than a Coalition majority government, given the difficulty of regaining seats lost to the teals in 2022. Sky News political reporter Cam Reddin stated that if the election produces a hung parliament, multiple pathways could emerge for forming a minority government. He explained that the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader could genuinely compete with independents, as a considerable number of them are expected, potentially increasing the cross-bench after the election. Ultimately, the decision could hinge on a few individuals - possibly teals, or other independents like Dai Le, Andrew Gee in Calare, Bob Katter, or Andrew Wilkie - who could swing the government's formation.Reddin, citing Coalition sources, stated that they believe securing the support of three independents, such as Dai Le, Bob Katter, and potentially Andrew Gee, or, in an optimistic scenario, Allegra Spender, would be crucial. He added that if the Coalition could achieve 73 or 72 seats, they would have a chance. Anything less might be considered too difficult. However, he emphasized that current indicators point towards a potentially complex negotiation period if neither major party secures a significant majority, exceeding 71 or 72 seats.
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