An independent forecast about Australia’s prospects in the Paris Olympics is bullish, but not unrealistic, ranking Australia fifth on a projected medal tally.
Australia is on track for a fruitful Olympic Games in Paris. A leading sports data agency predicts Australia to win 50 medals, which would equal its performance in Athens in 2004. Thirteen would be gold, including seven in the pool and two for superstar canoeist Jessica Fox.Last January, Gracenote, a division of international ratings agency Nielsen that analyses data at regular intervals between Olympics, assessed Australia for two fewer medals, but two more gold.
This was echoed by Kieren Perkins, chief executive of the Australian Sports Commission, which allocates government funding of sport. Nonetheless, it is human nature to rank and compare, and Gracenote caters to it, exhaustively monitoring national and world championships and world cups. Its accuracy rate is just less than 90 per cent. For the Tokyo Games, for instance, it predicted for Australia 40 medals including 16 gold. The actual haul was 46 medals and 17 gold.
Gracenote has hardly gone out on a limb in predicting big things for the US and China in Paris. The US has been put down for 123 medals, its best since Los Angeles 1984, nearly half of them in athletics and swimming. China is earmarked for 70 medals, including 35 gold, merely four fewer than the Americans.Great Britain is expected to sustain the excellence it has displayed since it won the rights to host the London 2012 Games, winning more than 60 medals for the fourth time in a row.
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