Weather bureau says there is now a 50/50 chance of La Niña forming this year
Storms hit the Gold Coast during a previous La Niña. Australia has been placed on La Niña watch by the Bureau of Meteorology.Storms hit the Gold Coast during a previous La Niña. Australia has been placed on La Niña watch by the Bureau of Meteorology.watch by the Bureau of Meteorology with early signs the climate pattern linked to cooler and wetter conditions across most of the country could form later this year.
But the bureau stressed that record high global sea surface temperatures seen between April 2023 and April 2024 meant that past experiences of how conditions in the Pacific could change “may not be reliable”. Bureau climate manager Dr Karl Braganza stressed the bureau’s long-range forecasts were not dependant on the state of the ENSO cycle.“The long-range forecast for June to August is showing an increased chance of above average rainfall for parts of eastern Australia, and parts of Western Australia and South Australia.
The current long-range forecast, which will be updated at the end of this month, shows that maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than usual across the entire country.While conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean are currently neutral, there are some signs that a La Niña may form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024.Three of the seven climate models surveyed by the bureau, which includes its own, suggest the Pacific will enter La Niña territory by September.
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