Bank capital ratios strong but don’t expect new buybacks: MS

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Bank capital ratios strong but don’t expect new buybacks: MS
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Major Australian banks’ capital ratios have weathered the pandemic just fine, but investors shouldn’t expect any more new buyback announcements, according to Morgan Stanley’s sell-side analysts.

They reckon the big four went from about 10.9 per cent in pre-COVID average capital ratio to 11.1 per cent, after accounting for buybacks, dividends and asset sales during the time.

By Morgan Stanley’s numbers, the big four’s excess capital is only $1.6 billion above an 11 per cent ratio or $6.2 billion above 10.75 per cent despite their strong CET1 ratios. They based this estimate off APRA’s new framework slated to go live in January 2023 plus NAB and Westpac’s new recently confirmed target capital ratios.Advertisement

The note said banks’ dividend payout ratios was generally lower than they were pre-COVID, with targets ranging from as low as 60% to as high as 80% .

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