Barclays warns that only a stock market crash could save bonds
U.S. stocks finally stopped falling yesterday following data indicating a slowdown in job growth, which alleviated concerns about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction and put a halt to the recent surge in bond yields.
“But after the 10y reached 4.6%, we turned neutral on duration… Bonds were not compellingly cheap, but finally seemed fairly priced.” “The only way the Fed could help longer yields is by hiking so aggressively that markets are convinced a recession is imminent and rush to buy longer rates. But that is extremely unlikely as well. The Fed is likely simply to stay the course.”
All these factors led the strategists to believe that only risk assets moving sharply lower could help the bond market at the moment. They argue that “the magnitude of the bond sell-off has been so stunning that stocks are arguably more expensive than a month ago, from a valuation standpoint.”
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