Staving off open conflict between Russia and the Wagner Group will burnish Lukashenko’s credentials but inviting Prigozhin to his country could be a challenge for the longtime dictator.
A weekend of chaos in Russia yielded few winners. Russian President Vladimir Putin is politically wounded, mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin is in serious trouble and the rest of the world has been left shaken by the sight of a nuclear power appearing to teeter haplessly on the brink.
At the same time, the episode could challenge Lukashenko. He appears to have granted Prigozhin, who is famously violent and volatile, safe passage to his country, potentially creating a domestic security risk, especially if Prigozhin’s forces relocate with him. It also might mean Belarus gets dragged back into the Ukraine conflict after serving as a launchpad in the early days.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later outlined a deal that dropped Russian charges and would see Prigozhin halt his troops in return for passage to Belarus.that he accepted a deal to avoid prosecution and move to Belarus because it would allow Wagner to continue its operations there.Russian news outlet Verstka reported that a Wagner base was being constructed in Belarus. But those details — like much else — remain unconfirmed.
Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya said it wasn’t at all clear yet what Lukashenko was even going to do with Prigozhin.“Lukashenko once again has made Belarus a hostage to other people’s games and wars. He is by no means a peacemaker.” “And this preciousness is worth money — it will be repaid financially, because that’s how the Belarusian-Russian friendship works.” Lukashenko may have also seen his intervention as a crucial means of staving off challenges at home.
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