Analysis: As oil prices – and diplomatic tensions – rise, two of the biggest US allies are questioning the basis of their relationship
The Saudi and Emirati refusal to bail Biden out – or even to take his calls – has pushed relations between the Gulf states and Washington to an unprecedented low. The extraordinary flow of Russian wealth to Dubai, just as the US and Europe try to strangle Putin’s economy, has inflamed things further.
“A more realistic discussion should focus on one word: divorce. When Barack Obama negotiated the nuclear deal with Iran, we Saudis understood him to be seeking the breakup of a 70-year marriage. Al-Yahya contrasted Washington’s demands with Beijing’s no-strings diplomacy, saying: “While American policy is beset by baffling contradictions, Chinese policy is simple and straightforward. Beijing is offering Riyadh a simple deal: sell us your oil and choose whatever military equipment you want from our catalogue; in return, help us to stabilise global energy markets.
A perceived lack of support from Washington for the Saudi-led campaign against Houthis in Yemen has added to the angst. And so too has an approach of an administration that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi believe is willing to sacrifice allies for idealism. The naked transactional diplomacy of Donald Trump was a formula more familiar to both, and had been readily deployed by China, to whom each is looking towards for closer trade, energy and even security ties.
Writing in the Lebanese daily Annahar, he said: “The UAE’s relationship with the US partner is at stake, at a crossroads. It is certain that the task of fixing the misunderstanding falls on the shoulders of the Biden administration, which may be on the verge of losing a regional partner that is increasingly self-confident and has an increasing regional and global presence.
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