Billionaire investor Howard Marks quoted Warren Buffett to stress the impossibility of predicting the coronavirus pandemic
about the immense uncertainty caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the impossibility of predicting how it will pan out.Fortune article in 1977The Oaktree Capital boss included the Berkshire Hathaway chief's comment in a list of similar quotes from George Orwell, Albert Einstein, and other luminaries. His favorite ones included:
"We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don't know — and those who don't know they know" — economist John Kenneth Galbraith. "No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all of your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future" — Ian Wilson, former chairman of General Electric.A Wall Street expert lays out how the stock market's 'downright terrifying' surge within this crisis may be laying the groundwork for another 32% crash"When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they're the first thing I open and read.
"While unique developments like those of today make forecasting unusually difficult, the presence of all four elements at once probably renders it impossible," he said, especially as the factors interact with one another.How many asymptomatic people will there be?Will a treatment be developed and how much will it help?The investor also laid out numerous factors that make forecasting particularly difficult now.
Economics is an imprecise discipline, there's"little or no history that's relevant today," people's behavior is unpredictable, and randomness plays a role, he said.Warren Buffett has weathered multiple market crashes. Here are his 10 best quotes about investing in tough times. »
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