The latest crash in ruble and peso represents reveal cracks in the global market, per one observer. Still, perceived safe havens like bitcoin and gold remain under pressure.
"It's not that either ARS or RUB depreciation will have direct reverberations for the broader markets, they won't but the developments do highlight the draw of the U.S. dollar as yields continue to move higher. Weak links are nearly always the first to reveal 'cracks' and certainly ARS and RUB are weak links," Derek Halpenny, head of research global markets EMEA and international securities, said in a note to clients on Tuesday.
So far, the supposed signs of cracks have brought little safe-haven demand for bitcoin, disappointing expectations. The leading cryptocurrency by market value, widely considered digital gold due to its finite supply, remains listless above $29,000, extending its multi-week dull price action. Bitcoin was one of the preferred safe havens during Turkey's currency crisis of 2021. Gold, meanwhile, hit a seven-week low of $1,896 per ounce on Tuesday and traded around $1,905 at press time.
Perhaps the ongoing hardening of the nominal and inflation-adjusted U.S. government bond yields, one of the key factors responsible for the latest slide in RUB and ARS, and the uptick in the dollar index, is keeping bitcoin and gold from rallying. The real or inflation-adjusted yield on the U.S. 10-year note has increased to 1.83%, the highest since 2009, denting the appeal of investing in zero-yielding assets like gold and bitcoin. The nominal 10-year yield has established a firm foothold above 4%."If U.S. yields continue to drift higher from here, we are likely to see further 'cracks' appear that could have greater implications for broader markets," Halpenny added.
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