For the past decade, plain-packaging laws and steep tax increases have helped to reduce the national smoking rate, but a booming black market has led some to question whether the federal government's policy is still working.
The legal tobacco market in Australia has declined by a third in the past 12 months, however experts say many people are now turning to cheaper, illegal cigarettes.
Industry data obtained by 7.30 indicates a third of the legal tobacco market has dropped off in the past 12 months, with tobacco retailers reporting a 29 per cent decline in the number of cigarette pack sales during the last financial year. But criminologist James Martin says the government's tax policy has only pushed people to cheaper, illicit tobacco."That would be fantastic news … if that drop was primarily driven by people quitting smoking, but it's not. It's primarily driven by people preferencing the black market," he told 7.30.In the last federal budget, forecast excise revenue was revised down from $14.7 billion in 2026-27 to $10.7 billion by 2027-28.
But Ed Jegasothy, a lecturer at the University of Sydney's School of Public Health, says the drop in the daily smoking rate since 2010 cannot be exclusively linked to increases in excise."The prevalence of smoking has decreased; it's not clear how much of that is attributable to the increases in price," he said.
Frankston resident Glenn Cooper is a disability pensioner. He says he refuses to buy illegal cigarettes and spends $250 on tobacco a week."Although the government's shafting us over it all, I still will not support criminals selling tobacco."
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