Research firm BMI has revised downward its Newcastle thermal coal price forecast for the year to $180/t, from $220/t previously, owing to global demand for coal having weakened. After averaging $192/t in the year-to-date, prices are hovering at about $150/t as of August 24, with BMI expecting coal to trade within a range of $150/t and $200/t for the remaining months of the year.
Research firm BMI has revised downward its Newcastle thermal coal price forecast for the year to $180/t, from $220/t previously, owing to global demand for coal having weakened.
BMI explains that buoyant global supply and a stronger dollar have influenced demand for coal. Thermal coal production in China and India, in particular, has risen significantly. Together, these figures will lead to a wider global surplus of thermal coal, from 293-million tonnes in 2022 to 521-million tonnes this year.
Coal was reiterated as a critical commodity during Mainland China’s National congress in 2022. China’s power sector alone accounts for one-third of global coal consumption.
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