BoE Preview: Forecasts from eight major banks, final 25 bps hike BOE GBPUSD EURGBP Macroeconomics Banks
The BoE will likely deliver a 25 basis points rate hike, raising the key policy rate from 4.0% to 4.25%. It will be the eleventh straight hike and probably the final one before the central bank adopts a wait-and-see approach.“The BoE was one of the first G10 central banks to start this hiking cycle, and we expect it to be one of the first to end the cycle, with a 25 bps hike to 4.25%. The decision, however, is finely balanced.
. Barring another major shock, 0.8700/50 should be solid support and a case to leg into topside. We also see downside risks to Cable given GBP's tactically rich valuation.”“We expect the BoE to hike the Bank Rate by 25 bps. We expect this to mark the peak in the Bank Rate of 4.25% as the BoE is set to signal a pause in the hiking cycle. We expect EUR/GBP to move slightly lower upon announcement.
“We expect the BoE to slow down its tightening cycle and stick to our call of a 25 bps increase to 4.25%. Although global financial instability risks have widened the range of potential outcomes, we do not believe the MPC’s decision-making has changed in response. Our view remains that the balance is tilted towards inflation risk, while non-interest rate tools could be used to mitigate the impact of financial contagion.
concerns, we expect this next move of 25 bps to be at the 23 March meeting, probably followed by a final 25 bps in May. The vote is likely to be 7-2.”“We expect the BoE to hike rates 25 bps to 4.25%, smaller than the 50 bps hike delivered in January. With inflation also now more clearly on a slowing trend, we believe that this week could also prove to be the final rate hike of the current cycle.”“We expect the BoE to vote 1-6-2 for a 25 bps hike but it is a very close call.
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