If the exitpoll is right, Labour has done exceptionally badly, recording its lowest number of seats since the war
EXIT POLLS can be wrong. In both 1992 and 2015, they predicted a hung parliament, whereas the actual result was an outright Tory victory. Yet there seems no reason to doubt the verdict this time of a big majority for the Conservatives, as it is consistent with almost every opinion poll during the election campaign. Absent an earthquake in the small hours, Boris Johnson will wake up tomorrow as prime minister with a substantial majority in Parliament.
In contrast the Remain vote has stayed split between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems, whose leader, Jo Swinson, called for an early election, have had a wretched campaign. Their polling share has fallen and they may well emerge with net seat losses compared with before. Many of their potential supporters who wanted to stop a Tory win that would deliver Brexit seem to have switched to Labour instead.
Although Mr Johnson seems on course for a big win, his party may have lost a few seats in London and the south, mainly because moderate pro-Remain Tories deserted it for the Lib Dems or even Labour. The exit poll suggests that the Conservatives have lost ground in Scotland to the Scottish National Party, which is set to tighten its grip north of the border. But these Tory losses seem to have been more than made up for by big gains from pro-Brexit Labour voters elsewhere.
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