Report says peak will bring to end to rising emissions as wind and solar capacity surges, but gas forecasts likely to cause concern
BP’s outlook report predicts oil use will increase by about 2m barrels a day to peak at about 102m in 2025 across both of its forecasts.BP’s outlook report predicts oil use will increase by about 2m barrels a day to peak at about 102m in 2025 across both of its forecasts.
BP predicts in both scenarios that carbon emissions will reach a peak in the middle of the decade amid a rapid expansion of wind and solar power as technology costs continue to fall. In both scenarios, demand for liquefied natural gas, which is cooled to be transported on ships, climbs by 40% and 30% above 2022 levels respectively.
Under the current trajectory oil demand is expected to fall to 97.8m barrels a day in 2035, which is 5% higher than last year’s BP forecasts. The net zero model predicts demand will remain at 80.2m barrels in 2035, up 10% on last year’s outlook. In order to keep a cap on rising emissions, low-carbon sources would need to roll out at a pace that matched the increase in global energy demand, Spencer added.
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