Opinion: Breaking formation: Why one major investment bank thinks Qantas can’t outrun poor service | EKnightOfficial
That said, even the higher airfares cannot completely offset the revenue impact of taking 10 per cent capacity out of the market.
“If industry constraints have caused on-time performance issues, logically, we expect a flatter capacity profile in 1H23 as more realistic, which is less than what guidance and the market is indicating,” Citi said in the note to investors.On Citi’s estimates, Australia’s flight cancellation rate was 5.8 per cent in June and 38 per cent of flights were delayed. But Qantas was above average at 8.1 per cent and had 46 per cent of flights delayed.
This represents a significant divergence from the broker pack - only one other analyst has a sell on Qantas and the majority have a buy recommendation. The consensus for Qantas’ 2023 earnings sits at about $837 million.
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