Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine throws mud at President Xi Jinping’s feet. China’s primary pillar of its foreign policy is “non-interference”: the idea sovereignty is sacrosanct, which resonates with many developing countries sick of being lectured by the West. Now, with explosions rocking the capital Kyiv, Chinese diplomats are stuck defending behaviour in practice they loudly condemn in principle. Nor will the world’s largest oil importer appreciate $105 barrels of oil as it grapples with slowing economic growth.
The Sino-Russian relationship was once quite hostile. Their armies have exchanged fire over border disputes, and older Chinese still remember how Russia pried Mongolia away from China in the early 20th century. But the two share a common interest in insulating their supply chains and financial systems from America and have moved closer together diplomatically. Economically Russia is also a secure source of energy.
An isolated Russia will need China even more to buy its energy and wheat, and to soften the impact of U.S. financial sanctions. Owing Putin no favours, Xi will drive hard bargains. China could use more Russian natural gas to meet emissions reductions targets, but the country has other supply options, improving its negotiating hand. It may also gain leverage in Central Asia, Russia’s backyard. Xi may be embarrassed, but he can console himself with leverage.
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