From Breakingviews - Economic chaos will break Orbán’s strongman spirit
Taking the road to Canossa looks like a no-brainer after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine ravaged Hungary’s landlocked economy harder than its European neighbours. Inflation hitin October, more than twice the EU average. GDP growth is seen slowing to 1.8% in 2023 after growing 5.7% in 2022, according to International Monetary Fund forecasts. Meanwhile the Hungarian forint fell 13% in 2022 against the euro , and 18% compared to its pre-pandemic level.
Orbán, who has been in power since 2010, was re-elected to a fourth term in April with a comfortable parliamentary majority. But thousands of students and teachers took to the streets in October to protest against rocketing prices and stagnating wages. With public debt at 75% of GDP and foreign investors reluctant to buy the country’s government bonds, the Hungarian strongman cannot turn the economy around without 13 billion euros of EU pandemic and budget funds earmarked for Budapest.
To claim the EU money, Orbán has to implement reforms serious enough to convince the EU the funds will not end up in the pockets of friends or businessmen close to his ruling Fidesz party. He has his work cut out: Hungary has slid toin Transparency International’s global Corruption Perceptions Index, down from 54th a decade ago.
Orbán’s popularity at home looks less steadfast. The risk of economic chaos will provide him with a strong incentive to step down from his most defiant, illiberal stances.
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