Breakingviews - South Korea gets short end of U.S. trade stick

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Breakingviews - South Korea gets short end of U.S. trade stick
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A trade deficit and crashing won offer a glimpse at what a U.S. revival in high-tech manufacturing means for South Korea's $1.8 trln economy, says mak_robyn

It hits a raw nerve just as demand for Korean goods is weakening with the global slowdown. Exports have underpinned the rapid development of its $1.8 trillion economy: Last year’s $645 billion of outbound shipments powered half of GDP growth, per The Korea International Trade Association.

Yet the country recorded a trade deficit in September for the sixth consecutive month. Semiconductors, a fifth of total exports, fell 5.7% year-on-year. The won has lost more than 20% of its value against the U.S. dollar this year. While falling oil and commodity prices should ensure an overall current account surplus this year, the longer-term risks are writ large.

A revival of American high-tech manufacturing will come at the expense of the trade-dependent Asian economy. Thanks to strong demand for South Korean-made electric cars, batteries and auto parts, shipments to the United States jumped 16% year-on-year in September. Those exports, which totaled some $96 billion last year, now look under threat. Big shifts today will have outsized effects on South Korea’s trade position down the road.

South Korea’s trade deficit was $3.77 billion in September, the sixth consecutive month in the red. The figure hit a record $9.47 billion the previous month.The South Korean won has weakened more than 20% against the U.S. dollar since the start of the year, making it one of the worst-performing major currencies in Asia.Editing by Antony Currie and Katrina Hamlin

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