A $50 billion surge in Australian exports is delivering Treasurer Josh Frydenberg a window of economic sunshine that could slam shut on whoever wins the election | swrighteconomy
A $50 billion surge in Australian exports is delivering Treasurer Josh Frydenberg a window of economic sunshine that could slam shut on whoever wins the election as prices fall for the nation's most important commodities.
Exports of the nation's energy and mineral resources have soared $50 billion this year but new forecasts suggests this is as good as it will get.But the lift, which has been driven largely by a $20 billion jump in LNG exports, is expected to peak in the current financial year before falling away over the next five years. Exports in 2019-20, which covers the coming budget, are expected to fall in value by almost 6 per cent or $6.1 billion.
Total exports are forecast to drop by more than $20 billion by 2023-24 - the period of the budget forward estimates."Trade tensions remain the largest risk to commodity markets, but a deeper than expected downturn in the global growth cycle — now in its ninth year — is also a potential hazard," he said.
But after breaching that promise in the mid-year budget update last December, the government is expected to rollout more spending next week that will be tied to the surge in commodity exports. "It has little incentive to improve the budget bottom line for the opposition should it win power," she said.
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